This Week’s Progress

I worked on three main projects this week:

  1. Visualizing my data spatially: After submitting last week’s milestone, I realized that my leaflet map was plotting basins in the completely wrong locations. I spent an inordinate amount of time trying to pass arguments into readOGR(), changing my coordinate systems, and using different mapping packages before I finally figured out that the problem was rather simple: I was trying to join my data onto the spatial polygons using merge(), when I should have been using join(). Apparently, merge() does not preserve the original order of the joined rows, which means that it scrambles your data and prevents it from being plotted correctly by leaflet(). Using join() preserves the row order, and ensures that leaflet() can plot SpatialPolygonsDataFrame objects correctly. In addition to correcting the polygons, I added 6 layers to my map, described in greater detail below. In the future, I will likely add 3 additional layers and split this one map into multiple visualizations, so that there are only 2-3 datasets per map. For now, as a “proof of concept,” I am leaving them in the same map.
  2. Twitter data: To supplement the high-level aggregated data provided by OSU and the World Bank, I experimented with scraping Tweets related to each of my river basin case studies, to gain insight into the discourses surrounding them. After looking through the data and experimenting with several different approaches, I do not think that Tweets will provide helpful information for my analysis (surprisingly, river basins are not a hot topic on Twitter). Though I left my Tweet scraping code for the Jordan River Basin in this document (so that I have a record in case I hope to return to it in the future), I now plan to instead scrape news sources for my case study basins to conduct sentiment analysis. I plan to model my approach on the method found here.
  3. Organizing and consolidating my code: Looking ahead to the Shiny app that needs to be created for the next milestone, I wanted to consolidate and organize my code. I modified my “gather.R” script and moved relevant components from past milestones to this milestone. I also converted much of my code for the Jordan River Basin into functions, so that it could easily be replicated for other basins.

By the next milestone, I hope to have these visualizations finished, and to have the “presentation” of my aggregate and case study data completed. More broadly, I want to incorporate a statistical component into my project. I have not taken any statistics courses, so I would love to talk with you about potential options for trying to perform causal inference related to the propensity for water conflict in river basins.

Like last week, I set “echo = TRUE” for this milestone, to allow for easier review of my code.


Project Background

In recent years, journalists, policymakers, and academics have become increasingly worried about the potential for climate-induced water scarcity to cause international conflict. Approximately 1.2 billion people live in water-scarce areas worldwide, and this number is expected to increase significantly under the stress of climate change. Some academics have suggested that countries will turn to violent conflict as they attempt to preserve precious transboundary water supplies. Others, led by Elinor Ostrom, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, have suggested that increased scarcity will motivate states to cooperate with one another as they attempt to collectively govern shared waters.

While many academics have conducted in-depth qualitative case studies of water governance in transboundary river basins—including the Jordan River, Nile River, and Indus River—few quantitative studies have examined the effect of resource scarcity on water conflict. This project aims to fill that research gap using newly-released datasets covering water governance outcomes over the past 200 years. In so doing, it seeks to answer the following question: Is water scarcity correlated with cooperation or conflict between states?

This project’s GitHub repository lives here.


The Data

This project draws heavily on the following datasets from the Oregon State University Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation:

This research also uses data from the World Bank, accessed using the wbstats() package in R.


Overview

We begin by exploring the broad spatial trends that define water conflict. The interactive map below includes five layers (which can be toggled using the “layers” button in the top right corner):

In the future, I will also map the following variables:

################# Preparing Data for Mapping #################

# Created a tibble with a list of events. I chose to filter for strings that
# include words related to conflict. I need to refine my filtering approach, but
# using these four terms works as an initial proxy for my demo case. To be able
# to merge this data with my polygons, I produced a per-basin count of
# conflict-related events.

events_n <- joined %>%
  filter(str_detect(event_summary, c("conflict", "war", "violence", "military"))) %>%
  distinct(date, .keep_all = TRUE) %>%
  group_by(basin_name) %>%
  rename(NAME = basin_name) %>%
  count() %>%
  rename(num_events = n)

# Same approach, for treaties.

treaties_n <- joined %>%
  distinct(document_name, .keep_all = TRUE) %>%
  group_by(basin_name) %>%
  rename(NAME = basin_name) %>%
  count() %>%
  rename(num_treaties = n)

# Same approach, for organizations. R is throwing a weird error when I try to
# plot this data, so I commented it out for now.

# orgs_n <- joined %>%
  # distinct(rbo_name, .keep_all = TRUE) %>%
  # group_by(rbo_name) %>%
  # rename(NAME = rbo_name) %>%
  # count() %>%
  # rename(num_orgs = n)

# It would be best to derive gdp, population, and trade from my "joined"
# dataset, and allow the user to select a year to see these variables, in
# addition to the organizations, treaties, and conflicts present in that year.
# Once I have Shiny set up, I think I will be able to do that. For now, I just
# displayed the most recently-available GDP from the World Bank dataset (2015).

gdp_mapping <- gdp %>%
  filter(date == 2015) %>%
  rename(CNTRY_NAME = country_name)

pop_mapping <- pop %>%
  filter(date == 2015) %>%
  rename(CNTRY_NAME = country_name)

trade_mapping <- trade_percent_gdp %>%
  filter(date == 2015) %>%
  rename(CNTRY_NAME = country_name)


################# Modifying Polygon Shapefiles #################

# I then merged these counts with my polygon data. Leaflet throws an error if
# the variable column includes NA values, so I replaced all NA values.

basins_geometry@data <- left_join(basins_geometry@data, events_n, by = "NAME") %>%
  left_join(treaties_n, by = "NAME") 
# %>% left_join(orgs_n, by = "NAME")

# Same approach for countries.

countries_geometry@data <- left_join(countries_geometry@data, gdp_mapping, by = "CNTRY_NAME") %>%
  left_join(pop_mapping, by = "CNTRY_NAME") %>%
  left_join(trade_mapping, by = "CNTRY_NAME")


################# Creating Leaflet Map #################

# Set my color palettes for each variable. 

binpal_num_events <- colorBin("Blues", basins_geometry$num_events, 5, pretty = FALSE, na.color = "#DFDFDF")
binpal_num_treaties <- colorBin("Greens", basins_geometry$num_treaties, 5, pretty = FALSE, na.color = "#DFDFDF")
binpal_num_orgs <- colorBin("Yellows", basins_geometry$num_orgs, 5, pretty = FALSE, na.color = "#DFDFDF")
binpal_gdp <- colorBin("Reds", countries_geometry$gdp, 5, pretty = FALSE, na.color = "#DFDFDF")
binpal_pop <- colorBin("Purples", countries_geometry$pop, 5, pretty = FALSE, na.color = "#DFDFDF")
binpal_trade <- colorBin("Oranges", countries_geometry$trade_percent_gdp, 5, pretty = FALSE, na.color = "#DFDFDF")

# Created my Leaflet map, using a simple CartoDB basemap. Zoomed out and
# centered the map, added my polygons, and changed their color based on their
# relative number of events. Added a layer toggle by grouping polygons and their
# respective legends.

leaflet(width = "100%") %>% 
  addProviderTiles(providers$CartoDB.Positron) %>% 
  setView(lng = 0, lat = 30,zoom = 1.5) %>% 
  
## Conflict Events ## 
  
  addPolygons(data = basins_geometry, 
              stroke = FALSE, 
              smoothFactor = 0.2, 
              fillOpacity = .6, 
              popup= paste("Name:", 
                           basins_geometry$NAME, 
                           "Basin <br>", 
                           "Number of Violent Conflicts:",
                           basins_geometry$num_events), 
              color = ~binpal_num_events(num_events), 
              group = "Conflict Events"
              ) %>%
  addLegend("bottomright", 
              pal = binpal_num_events, 
              values = basins_geometry$num_events, 
              title = "# of water conflict <br> events since 1948", 
              opacity = 1, 
              labFormat = labelFormat(digits = 0), 
              group = "Conflict Events"
              ) %>%
  
## Treaties ## 
  
  addPolygons(data = basins_geometry, 
              stroke = FALSE, 
              smoothFactor = 0.2, 
              fillOpacity = .6, 
              popup= paste("Name:", 
                           basins_geometry$NAME, 
                           "Basin <br>", 
                           "Number of Treaties:",
                           basins_geometry$num_treaties), 
              color = ~binpal_num_treaties(num_treaties), 
              group = "Treaties"
              ) %>%
  addLegend("bottomright", 
              pal = binpal_num_treaties, 
              values = basins_geometry$num_treaties, 
              title = "# of treaties <br> since 1948", 
              opacity = 1, 
              labFormat = labelFormat(digits = 0), 
              group = "Treaties"
              ) %>%
  
## Organizations ## 
  
  # addPolygons(data = basins_geometry, 
              # stroke = FALSE, 
              # smoothFactor = 0.2, 
              # fillOpacity = .6, 
              # popup= paste("Name:", 
                           # basins_geometry$NAME, 
                           # "Basin <br>", 
                           # "Number of Organizations:",
                           # basins_geometry$num_orgs), 
              # color = ~binpal_num_orgs(num_orgs), 
              # group = "Organizations"
              # ) %>%
  # addLegend("bottomright", 
              # pal = binpal_num_orgs, 
              # values = basins_geometry$num_orgs, 
              # title = "# of Organizations", 
              # opacity = 1, 
              # labFormat = labelFormat(digits = 0), 
              # group = "Organizations"
              # ) %>%
  
## GDP ## 
  
  addPolygons(data = countries_geometry, 
              stroke = FALSE, 
              smoothFactor = 0.2, 
              fillOpacity = .6, 
              color = ~binpal_gdp(gdp), 
              group = "GDP (2015)"
              ) %>%
  addLegend("bottomleft", 
              pal = binpal_gdp, 
              values = countries_geometry$gdp, 
              title = "2015 GDP", 
              opacity = 1, 
              labFormat = labelFormat(digits = 0), 
              group = "GDP (2015)"
              ) %>%
  
## Pop ## 
  
    addPolygons(data = countries_geometry, 
              stroke = FALSE, 
              smoothFactor = 0.2, 
              fillOpacity = .6,
              color = ~binpal_pop(pop), 
              group = "Population (2015)"
              ) %>%
  addLegend("bottomleft", 
              pal = binpal_pop, 
              values = countries_geometry$pop, 
              title = "2015 Population", 
              opacity = 1, 
              labFormat = labelFormat(digits = 0), 
              group = "Population (2015)"
              ) %>%
  
## Trade ## 
  
    addPolygons(data = countries_geometry, 
              stroke = FALSE, 
              smoothFactor = 0.2, 
              fillOpacity = .6, 
              color = ~binpal_trade(trade_percent_gdp), 
              group = "Trade % GDP (2015)"
              ) %>%
  addLegend("bottomleft", 
              pal = binpal_trade, 
              values = countries_geometry$gdp_percent_trade, 
              title = "GDP Percent Trade", 
              opacity = 1, 
              labFormat = labelFormat(digits = 0), 
              group = "Trade % GDP (2015)"
              ) %>%
  
## Countries ## 
  
  addPolygons(data = countries_geometry, 
              stroke = TRUE, 
              color = "black", 
              weight = .4,
              label = countries_geometry$CNTRY_NAME,
              fill = FALSE,
              smoothFactor = 0.2, 
              group = "Countries"
              ) %>%
  
## Layer Control ## 
  
  addLayersControl(overlayGroups = c("Countries", "Conflict Events", "Treaties", "Population (2015)", "GDP (2015)", "Trade % GDP (2015)"),
    options = layersControlOptions(collapsed = TRUE)
  ) %>%
  hideGroup(c("Treaties", "Population (2015)", "GDP (2015)", "Trade % GDP (2015)"))


Statistical Analysis

[Causal inference; under construction. I hope to discuss this with Alyssa.]


Case Studies

While high-level, aggregate datasets are useful for making causal inference, it is worth testing the conclusions drawn above (in the statistical analysis section) by applying them to specific case studies. This study examines the Jordan River, Colorado River, Mekong River, and Indus River basins. These cases are roughly comparable demographically and geopolitically, but have wide variability in the number of water conflicts they have experienced.

event_processing <- function(basin_code) {
  joined %>%
  filter(bcode == basin_code) %>%
  filter(str_detect(event_summary, c("conflict", "war", "violence", "military"))) %>%
  arrange(date) %>%
  distinct(date, .keep_all = TRUE)
}

plot_event_frequency <- function(dataset) {
  ggplot(dataset, aes(year)) + 
  geom_bar() + 
  xlab("Year") + ylab("Count") + 
  theme_classic()
}

plot_event_table <- function(dataset) {
  dataset %>%
    select(date, dyad_code, event_summary) %>%
    gt() %>%
    cols_label(date = "Date", 
             dyad_code = "Conflict Dyad", 
             event_summary = "Event Summary")
}
org_processing <- function(basin_code) {
  joined %>%
  filter(bcode == basin_code) %>%
  distinct(rbo_name, .keep_all = TRUE)
}

plot_org_table <- function(dataset) {
  dataset %>%
    select(date, dyad_code, rbo_name, agreement_name, agreement_date) %>%
    gt() %>%
    cols_label(date = "Date", 
             dyad_code = "Conflict Dyad", 
             rbo_name = "Organization Name",
             agreement_name = "Org Formation Agreement Name", 
             agreement_date = "Agreement Date")
}

Jordan River Basin

"Originating from the Anti-Lebanon and Mount Hermon mountain ranges, the Jordan River covers a distance of 223 km from north to south and discharges into the Dead Sea. The river has five riparians: Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria.

The Jordan River headwaters (Hasbani, Banias and Dan) are fed by groundwater and seasonal surface runoff. The Lower Jordan River originally received its main inflow from the outlet of Lake Tiberias and the Yarmouk River, the largest tributary, as well as from several wadis and aquifers. The flow of the Upper Jordan River into Lake Tiberias remains nearly natural, but flow rates in the downstream part of the river have decreased sharply in the last 50 years due to the construction of a series of infrastructure and diversion schemes established in the basin. For instance, the mean annual historic flow of the Yarmouk that was estimated at 450-500 MCM in the 1950s has today decreased to 83-99 MCM. The current annual discharge of the Lower Jordan River into the Dead Sea is estimated at 20-200 MCM compared to the historic 1,300 MCM. Moreover, water quality in the Lower Jordan River is very low.

Water use in the Jordan River basin is unevenly developed. Palestine and Syria have no access to the Jordan River; hence their use of water resources from the river itself is nil. However, Syria has built several dams in the Yarmouk River sub-basin, which is part of the Jordan River basin. The country uses about 450 MCM/yr of surface and groundwater resources in the basin, mainly for agricultural purposes. Annual abstractions in the Hasbani sub-basin in Lebanon are estimated at 9-10 MCM, which are mainly used for domestic water supply. Israel is the largest user of water from the Jordan River basin, with an annual withdrawal of between 580 and 640 MCM. It is also the only user of water from Lake Tiberias. Jordan uses about 290 MCM/yr of water from the Jordan River basin. Water diverted from the Yarmouk River to the King Abdullah Canal is used for irrigation of crops in the Jordan Valley and for domestic use in Amman. Overall, the Jordan River basin has an estimated total irrigated area of 100,000- 150,000 ha of which around 30% is located in Israel, Jordan and Syria, 5% in Palestine and 2% in Lebanon.

Since the early 20th century, numerous attempts to foster cooperation between basin riparians have been hampered by the regional political conflict which continues to stand in the way of any basin-wide agreement on water. A number of bilateral agreements encourage cooperation over water between Israel and Jordan, and Israel and Palestine."1


List of Conflict Events

Then, I created a frequency histogram of these events over time. The relatively calm period in the 1970s and 80s is consistent with a period of stagnation that I’ve written about previously for other research projects.

jord_events <- event_processing("JORD")

plot_event_frequency(jord_events) + 
  labs(title = "Water Conflict Events in the Jordan River Basin, 1948-2008", 
       caption = "Source: OSU Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation")

plot_event_table(jord_events) %>%
  tab_header("Water Conflict Events in the Jordan River Basin, 1948-2008")
Water Conflict Events in the Jordan River Basin, 1948-2008
Date Conflict Dyad Event Summary
1956-04-20 ISR_SYR Egypt, Syria, and Jordan threaten war if Israel resumes Jordan River Project
1960-11-21 ISR_JOR Israel warns Jordan against diverting river tributaries
1961-11-06 ISR_SYR Syria warns Israel fire on any attempt to divert Jordan River
1965-01-23 ISR_LBN Israel warns Lebanon Lebanese have no right usurp water belonging to Israel
1965-08-05 JOR_INT Jordan awards contracts for building of Ghor Canals
1968-09-26 JOR_SAU Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria agree joint military command on Jordan river front
1990-07-31 ISR_SYR Major-General Hekmat Shehabi, Syria's armed forces chief of staff, said Israel planned to occupy more lands to reach oilfields and water resources in the Arab world. Shehabi urged Arab states to go on a "real confrontation with the enemy and to seek at the same time to achieve just peace in the region. The enemy's expansionist plans are aimd at the Arab nation from the oilfields to the water resources. There is a real danger as long as our enemy continues to reject peace and receive more Jewish immigrants," Shehabi said. "We have a just cause and we will not give any concessions on our rights. We are seeking to achieve these rights through all legitimate and possible means, including the diplomatic action and the military option if it is imposed on us." Shehabi accused Israel of expansionist aims during an interview with the Baath Daily.
1991-03-21 EGY_IRQ Egypt's ambassador to the United States, M. Samir Ahmed announced that bickering over water among Israel, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq could lead to new tensions, if not armed conflict. The Egyptian envoy was among officials from more than a dozen countries attending a U.S. government-backed "world water summit". "Israel is badly in need of more water. So is Syria. So is Jordan. So is Lebanon. What are they going to do about it? There are going to be water-induced disputes -- tension at least, if not war," Ahmed told Reuters on March 21.
1991-08-23 ISR_TUR Turkey President Ozal sent a special letter to US President Bush notifying him that he cannot invite Israel to regional water conference to be held in Turkey in November, due to objections presented by Syria & other Arab nations. The US expressed disappointment over this decision. Israeli sources have said that Ozal's surrender to Syrian pressure is viewed as an unfriendly act toward Israel & one that is hard to undertand in view of international efforts to promote international peace conference. When pressed by the US, Turkish President avoided a direct reply, saying that if the US manages to convene regional peace conference in October, he might reconsider inviting Israel to the conference.
1991-12-23 JOR_LBN Jordanian officials announced Jordanian hopes on December 23 that the Middle East peace talks will provide an opportunity to settle long-disputed water rights with Lebanon, Israel and Syria on the Jordan river basin. Arab states, including Jordan, are due to hold multilateral talks with Israel in Moscow at the end of January and water will be high on the agenda. "We are talking about water rights to sustain agricultural practices, industrial and domestic needs in Jordan and a clean environment," Water Minister Samir Kawar told Reuters when asked how much water his country hoped to get from a peace treaty. Jordan, a desert nation of 3.4 million people says it is facing a severe water crisis due to drought, a population boom, the needs of farmers and the actions of water-hungry neighbours Syria and Israel.
1992-03-21 ISR_TUR Turkey hasn't answered the question concerning the sale of water to Israel. Turkey says anyone can now buy water from Turkey and that there will be no water wars.
1992-11-27 ISR_JOR Israel and Jordan announced they would hold bilateral discussions on water problems in the U.S. next month, the Jordanian Water and Irrigation minister Samir Kawar said. ''There will be a bilateral on water in the U.S. in December,'' he told Reuters in an interview while attending a water and environment forum here. A multilateral conference in Vienna in May looked at the problems of sharing water between the Palestinians of the Occupied Territories and Israel. ''There will be a bilateral on water in Washington in December,'' he told Reuters in an interview while attending a water and environment forum here. ''After the national issue (of Palestinians), water is the most important issue between us,'' he said.
1993-10-15 JOR_SYR Regarding Jordan's view of the magnitude of problem and how it recommends handling it, specifically with Israel since water issue will be the cause of any conflict that might erupt in region, Jordan King Husayn said "water is indeed one of most serious/important issues. We can address the urgent issue within a framework of genuine peace. Therefore, we hope other parties will quickly join us to regain rights and help make peace, particularly with Syria and Lebanon. We hope they regain rights in near future."
1994-06-07 JOR_SYR Syria has warned Jordan against holding bilateral negotiations with Israel on the water question, since it is vital issue that concerns Syria as well. Jordan Deputy Prime Minister al-Tall, visited Damascus recently & held direct talks with Syria President al-Asad. See event F690.
1995-06-23 ISR_SYR Syria government yesterday dashed hopes of an early break-through in peace talks with Israel, which are set to resume in Washington next Tuesday, by descibing the gap between the 2 sides as vast. Beyond security impasse lie sharp differences over timetable for returning the Golan Heights & historical dispute over Golan's rich water resources. The water dispute, part of the fuel for the 1967 war, has yet to be addressed, although right-wing opposition Likud party in Israel cites it as principal reason for not surrending the Golan. Khaddam, "nominal number 2 to President al-Asad in Syria regime," said flatly that the water that springs from Syria land is Syria's water. A senior Arab official close to negotiations predicted that no agreement will be reached without agreement on water from both sides. The real debate is about water, not security.
1995-07-05 ISR_PLO Israel Agriculture Minister Tzur warned that the "Israel water economy would face disaster" if Israel relinquished control over water sources in the West Bank. See event F1053A.
1995-10-31 ISR_PLO Israel Foreign Minister Peres on Tuesday described the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) economic summit as a great contributor to the concept of regional economic cooperation & development. According to Peres, geographic proximity among 3 warrant such a relationship (i.e., "economic confederation"). Take electricity, he said, you cannot keep power from crossing borders. He mentioned water, etc. as other areas where economic confederation makes more sense. Peres described Jordan-Israel relations as developing in a satisfying manner from the viewpoint of Israel & Jordan. "It is more than just an agreement between 2 parties," he said, referring to countries' joint efforts to raise money for water projects stipulated in the treaty & other moves toward bilateral & regional cooperation.
1995-12-15 LBN_SYR Pending results of talks between Syria President al-Asasd & US Secretary Christopher, Lebanon Foreign Minister Buwayz said that a statement by Israel Prime Minister Peres contained no practical proposals. Before Warren arrived in Damascus to work on positive signs in region to revive Syria-Israel negotiations, Buwayz said Lebanon authorities are the only party qualified to negotiate & discuss Lebanon's rights in peace process. Thus, Israel Prime Minister Peres' refuting a statement (i.e., that a call was made to Syria to negotiate water issues & economic ties on Lebanon's behalf) is manuver intended to create conflict & a race between Lebanon & Syria.
1996-05-14 ISR_JOR Jordan irrigation Minister Qa-war, who visited Israel the day before yesterday, denied that there is any coolness or disagreement in Jordan-Israel relations. He said that he hasn't heard of anything of that kIndia But Israel water official Mitsur, answering a question about the results of water talks between him & the Jordan minister, told Israel radio: What water are you talking about? We have no water to give anyone, since we pledged to give Jordan an agreed quantity of 30 million cubic meters (mcm). We have now to work jointly to discover new water resources to share between the two sides. The Jerusalem Post: Tsur and Qa'war meet in Amman to discuss dam along Yarmuk River. After meeting, Tsur suggests that the two sides work together to find new water sources for both countries to share since Israel has no additional water to provide Jordan beyond the 30 mcm already provided.
1996-07-28 ISR_JOR Jordan Minister of Information al-Mu'ashshir was quoted by Jordan News Agency, Pentra, Saturday as telling high school students that Jordan is still awaiting implementation of Israel's commitment to pump water to Jordan despite lapse of 1&1/2 years from signing of peace treaty in October 1994. The treaty called on plan for water supply to Jordan within 1 year, yet the joint committee has not forwarded to respective governments any plan.
1996-08-23 ISR_JOR Eitan criticizes Jordan-Syrian dam proposal on Yarmuk stating that it conflicts with regional water agreements, including those in the Jordan-Israel peace agreement. Eitan states that if Israel benefits from the dam, Israel would not oppose. Eitan speculates, however, that Syria will not be willing to share water with Israel. He threatened a reconsideration of Israel's water agreement with Jordan if Israel does not benefit from the dam.
1996-10-08 ISR_JOR Jordan Prince Hasan spoke during his visit to the Jordan Times on 10/8, warning that the region would be facing grim prospects if peace process collapses. He said that peace treaty Jordan signed with Israel in October 1994 does offer the promise of valuable peace dividends, citing water & other development projects that were discussed but whose implementation was delayed.
1997-08-23 ISR_JOR Israel government of Netanyahu, which did all it could to block progress in Palestine negotiations, now intends to make a similar move on Syrian negotiation track, referring to Israel's intention to build a dam in Syria-occupied territory. Sharon Israel Infrastructure Minister justifies project with technical reasons that have no political motives. Changing the site of the dam from one in undisputed area, as decided by previous Israel government, to a site in Syria-occupied territory is a strong declaration that Netanyahu government refuses to heed terms of reference of Middle East peace process, including Security Council Resolution 242. Article reports that Netanyahu government is now responsible for repercussions of pursuing Sharon's plans and warn Israel against playing with hidden fire under ashes of Arab-Israel conflict.
1997-08-24 ISR_SYR Israel confirmed Sunday it will build a reservoir dam on the al-Yarmuk River in territory claimed by Syria, in cooperation with Jordan, at the recommendation of Infrastructure Minister Sharon. Sharon spokesman Gissin told AFP that "Israel, Jordan, and foreign companies are doing the preliminary work at the site and then will begin construction." Syria has demanded the return of the Golan Heights as the price for peace with Israel. Israel is committed to building a dam under Jordan-Israel 1994 treaty, but the site was not specified in the treaty. Jordan officials have warned that their government could renounce its participation in the project and demand reimbursement of funds already invested to prepare previous site if Sharon's plan is put to action, the Haaretz newspaper reported. Reacting to the Haaretz report, a Jordan government spokesman said Saturday that Jordan was not involved in choosing a site for the dam and has never negotiatied/concluded any accord aimed at putting pressure on Israel-Syria negotiations. Gissin insisted that the site was decided in talks with Jordan in the past year, taking only hydrological and technological considerations to mind, as outlined in agreements.
1997-08-30 ISR_SYR Al-Ahram warns in an editorial today that United States policy on peace process could lose its rationale if United States administration tries to abandon the balance between what it wants to apply to Palestinians and what it wants to apply to Israelis. Editorial criticizes inadequate reaction to Israel announcing intention to build dam on Yarmuk River in occupied Syria Golan Heights and notes that it merely opposed the building of the dam because it will be built on "disputed land."
1997-12-02 ISR_PLO Settlers and occupation forces continued to work on road linking Efrat settlement with Hwy. 60 and Daniyel settlement. Darwish, information spokesman of Popular Land Defense Committee (PLDC) in Bethlehem Governate, told al-Ayyam that these settlement incursions will destroy 400 donums of land planted with vines and almond trees. Daniyel settlers also established compound for animals outside fences surrounding settlement, while settlement guards threatened land owners, citizens, and members of PLDC who tried to enter the area to work on their land and who staged protest outside settlment. Protestors went to Palestine Civil Liasion offices and lodged complaint about Israeli measures and incursions. Citizens also expelled from land in Ra's Salah and al-'Awarid areas on November 30. In another development, citizens of al-Jab'ah village lodged a complaint with Palestine Civil Liason office over incusrions by Bat 'Ayin settlers. They protested that settlers were pumping brackish and polluted water into al-Jab'ah valley.
1998-04-28 ISR_JOR Israel plans to change the course of the upper Jordan River water which flows into Lake Tiberias have recently been exposed. Plan calls for diverting the water course before reaching Lake Tiberias. Al-Dustur has put the spotlight on the plan and its effects on Jordan and Palestine. Jordan Water and Irrigation Minister Haddadin said we are prepared to assist in settling problems of the Jordan River. We would have rejected the plan anyway had it been suggested to us, he added. Engineer and deputy head of the Palestine Water Authority, Ka'wash, said diverting river's course means pre-determining negotiations and depriving Palestine from benefiting from its share of the Jordan River. Palestine is faced with a major water shortage. Ka'wash said we consider this a declaration of a new war on water proclaimed by Israel. The Likud governmentt is rejecting all kind of negotiations, while Palestine clings to its rights. All Israel measures are illegal, as no basin-party can undertake harmful unilateral action under international law.
1998-06-17 ISR_SYR Syria Irrigation Minister Madani has announced that Syria rejects a proposal to establish a water council for Midle East and North Africa and that Syria is still at war with Israel, which will become a member of proposed council. Madani also said Turkey has failed to block the agreement or to give it the title "Border-crossing waters and market waters." Madani pointed out that his country supports establishment of Arab Company to draw up long-term water strategies and defend Arabs' rights in their waters that are being plundered by Israel, noting that Israel plunders 300 million cubic meters of Golan's water a year and steals water from Palestine territories and southern Lebanon.
1998-11-24 ISR_JOR Jordan's Foreign Minister denies that Jordanian-Syrian decision to develop early warning system for Yarmuk water quality runs counter to the terms of the Israeli-Jordanian peace agreement.
1998-11-25 JOR_SYR Jordan Information Minister Judah on November 25 said Jordan would like to maintain normal relations with Syria and called on Damascus to name an envoy to fill post of ambassador, which has been vacant since 1990. The minister described recent water agreement between Amman and Damascus as a "good step" towards enhancing cooperation between the countries, referring to the accord to construct a multi-million dinar dam on the Yarmuk River.
1999-03-16 ISR_JOR In a new proactive step toward Jordan the Israeli government announced its intention to reduce the amount of water it will pump to Jordan next summer for 50 million cubic meters mcm to 20 mcm. This means a 60% cut in the amount of water stipulated in signed agreements. Israel excuse is a lack of rainfall this year & low amount of water flowing from al-Yarmuk River into Lake Tiberias.
1999-08-21 ISR_JOR Following Israel's approval of Jordan's proposal to directly take its water share from the Yarmuk River instead of storing it in Lake Tiberias, joint technical teams are expected to meet this week to start acting on the request, sources said Friday. Both planned to meet last week, but talks were postponed at the request of the Jewish state, whose "acceptance aims to show its goodwill towards Jordan," sources told Jordan Times.
2002-10-09 ISR_USA The US has reportedly put forward a two-stage compromise plan to defuse the dispute between Israel and Lebanon over the latter's intention to pump water from the Wazzani River, a tributary of the Jordan River.
2006-11-24 JOR_ISR Jordanian and Israeli mayors signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on shared water issues. The agreement forms part of the Good Water Neighbours (GWN) project, established by EcoPeace/FoEME in 2001 to raise awareness of the shared water problems of Palestinians, Jordanians and Israelis. The goal of the project is to develop dialogue and cooperation on sustainable water management.
NA ISR_LBN The US has reportedly put forward a two-stage compromise plan to defuse the dispute between Israel and Lebanon over the latter's intention to pump water from the Wazzani River, a tributary of the Jordan River. 
# I plan to convert this into a timeline using https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/leaftime/index.html.

Next, I created a table that displays the water conflict events in the basin. After looking at the events being returned, it seems like a more accurate title might be “Water Conflict and Diplomacy Events”, since a number of the events in the OSU database are not so much violent conflict as violent rhetoric and/or negotiations to avoid conflict. I have conducted research on the Jordan River Basin for over a year now; in my opinion, these events appropriately characterize the water conflict events that occured over this period. This reflects positively on the quality of the OSU dataset.


Active Organizations

jord_orgs <- org_processing("JORD")

plot_org_table(jord_orgs) %>%
  tab_header("Transboundary Organizations in the Jordan River Basin, 1948-2008")
Transboundary Organizations in the Jordan River Basin, 1948-2008
Date Conflict Dyad Organization Name Org Formation Agreement Name Agreement Date
1998-09-30 ISR_PLO Joint Water Committee between Jordan and Israel Annex II to the Treaty of Peace Between the State of Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan 1994
1998-09-30 ISR_PLO Joint Water Committee between Israel and Palestine Israeli-Palestinian Interim Agreement on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, Annexes I to VII 1995
1996-08-05 JOR_SYR Joint Syrio-Jordanian Commission Agreement between Syria and Jordan concerning the Utilization of the Yarmouk Waters 1953
1990-08-02 LBN_SYR NA NA NA


Active Treaties

[under construction]


Twitter Sentiments

# https://utstat.toronto.edu/~nathan/teaching/sta4002/Class1/scrapingtwitterinR-NT.html

fn_twitter <- searchTwitter("jordan + river", n=18000,
# geocode="39.5501,-105.7821,500km",
retryOnRateLimit=200)

fn_twitter_df <- twListToDF(fn_twitter) %>%
    filter(isRetweet == FALSE) # Convert to data frame

tweet_words <- fn_twitter_df %>% 
  select(id, text) %>% 
  unnest_tokens(word,text)

my_stop_words <- stop_words %>% 
  select(-lexicon) %>% 
  bind_rows(data.frame(word = c("https", "t.co", "rt", "amp", "2", "i'm", "1", "20", "5", "7")))

tweet_words_interesting <- tweet_words %>% 
  anti_join(my_stop_words)

tweet_words_interesting %>% 
  group_by(word) %>% 
  tally(sort=TRUE) %>% 
  slice(1:25) %>% 
  ggplot(aes(x = reorder(word, n, function(n) -n), y = n)) + 
  geom_bar(stat = "identity") + 
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 60, hjust = 1)) + 
  xlab("") + 
  labs(title = "Words Appearing Alongside 'Jordan River' on Twitter (2018)")

bing_lex <- get_sentiments("bing")
tweet_words_interesting %>% 
  left_join(bing_lex) %>%
  filter(!is.na(sentiment)) %>% 
  group_by(sentiment) %>% 
  summarise(n=n()) %>%
  gt() %>% 
  tab_header(title = "Sentiment Analysis", subtitle = "Words Appearing Alongside 'Jordan River' on Twitter (2018)")
Sentiment Analysis
Words Appearing Alongside 'Jordan River' on Twitter (2018)
sentiment n
negative 112
positive 135 
# Create a word cloud?


Colorado River Basin

[Basin description here.]


List of Conflict Events

There were no conflict events in the Colorado River Basin during this period.

cldo_events <- event_processing("CLDO")

plot_event_frequency(cldo_events) + 
  labs(title = "Water Conflict Events in the Colorado River Basin, 1948-2008", 
       caption = "Source: OSU Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation")

plot_event_table(cldo_events) %>%
  tab_header("Water Conflict Events in the Colorado River Basin, 1948-2008")
Water Conflict Events in the Colorado River Basin, 1948-2008
Date Conflict Dyad Event Summary


Active Organizations

cldo_orgs <- org_processing("CLDO")

plot_org_table(cldo_orgs) %>%
  tab_header("Transboundary Organizations in the Colorado River Basin, 1948-2008")

Transboundary Organizations in the Colorado River Basin, 1948-2008
Date Conflict Dyad Organization Name Org Formation Agreement Name Agreement Date
1982-08-22 MEX_USA International Water and Boundary Commission Convention of 1889 creating the International Boundary Commission; 1944 Treaty 1889

Mekong River Basin

[Basin description here.]


List of Conflict Events

meko_events <- event_processing("MEKO")

plot_event_frequency(meko_events) + 
  labs(title = "Water Conflict Events in the Mekong River Basin, 1948-2008", 
       caption = "Source: OSU Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation")

plot_event_table(meko_events) %>%
  tab_header("Water Conflict Events in the Mekong River Basin, 1948-2008")
Water Conflict Events in the Mekong River Basin, 1948-2008
Date Conflict Dyad Event Summary
1994-08-19 CHN_THA Thailand, Burma, Cambodia, China, Laos, & Vietnam yesterday took a major step toward development of science & technology by drafting guidelines on further cooperation. The countries discussed 2 guiding principles on the 1st day of the 1st International Congress on Science & Technology for Cordial Relationships among Neighboring Countries: (1) fairness, transparency, & consensus of opinion; & (2) development of science, technology, & human resources to improve economic & social well-being. Science, Technology, & Environment Minister Mulasatsathon (Thai ?) identified water resources & rice as important issues that need joint development. Vietnam Science, Technology, & Environment Minister Huu cited environmental pollution, exploitation of natural resources & other adverse impacts as examples that the region should try to prevent.
1995-10-24 CHN_LAO Beijing is considering its level of participation in the upcoming Mekong River Commission (MRC) meeting, but stressed that its presence shouldn't be taken as a commitment to becoming a member. China's plan for construction of 9 dams on the upper Mekong in south Yunnan province posed no harm to downstream Vietnam, said Zhang, the subcommittee member of development for Regional Cooperation. Zhang said recent visit by officials from Hanoi to 1 of the dam sites in Yunnan had cleared up "misunderstandings" about environmental impacts. He said no conflict exists between China & Vietnam over use of the river. If there is any conflict, it's between Thailand & Vietnam, he added. China projects detailed in article also. Zhang said China would expect its relationship with the group to be a forum for technical & economic cooperation. To accept principles of water usage under MRC is still beyond Beijing's expectation however.
2002-01-19 KHM_VNM China moves forward with plans to build 6 more dams on the Upper Mekong despite concerns from downstream nations about economic and environmental damage.
2002-12-16 KHM_VNM MRC will receive $1.25 million to the new Flood Management Program to help Cambodia and Laos access to flood warnings based on sat years ellite data by the USAID office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance with is $25 million project for over six
2004-03-11 KHM_THA MRC scientists warned member countries will face serious food security and water conflicts soon due to environmental degradation and population pressures. The 8 projects to study a wide range of issues regarding agricultural productivity and efficient water use will begin by MRC to mitigate the issue.
2008-05-28 KHM_LAO Countries agree that a new early flood warning system should be put in place to protect lower Mekong communities. They are already working on a system that provides "medium-term" flood forecasts. The countries also agreed to increase warning from 5 days to 10 days.


Active Organizations

meko_orgs <- org_processing("MEKO")

plot_org_table(meko_orgs) %>%
  tab_header("Transboundary Organizations in the Mekong River Basin, 1948-2008")
Transboundary Organizations in the Mekong River Basin, 1948-2008
Date Conflict Dyad Organization Name Org Formation Agreement Name Agreement Date
1997-09-11 CHN_THA Greater Mekong Sub-Region NA 1992
1997-09-11 CHN_THA ASEAN Mekong Basin Development Cooperation (ASEAN-MBDC) Basic Framework of ASEAN- Mekong Basin Development Cooperation 1996
1996-08-04 KHM_MMR Mekong River Commission Agreement on the Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin 1995


Indus River Basin

[Basin description here.]


List of Conflict Events

indu_events <- event_processing("INDU")

plot_event_frequency(indu_events) + 
  labs(title = "Water Conflict Events in the Indus River Basin, 1948-2008", 
       caption = "Source: OSU Program in Water Conflict Management and Transformation")

plot_event_table(indu_events) %>%
  tab_header("Water Conflict Events in the Indus River Basin, 1948-2008")
Water Conflict Events in the Indus River Basin, 1948-2008
Date Conflict Dyad Event Summary
1949-06-16 IND_PAK In the Delhi agreement signed in May 1948, conflicting claims for water between India and Pakistan were not resolved. In the agreement, India would not withdraw water delivery without allowing time for Pakistan to develop alternative sources. Pakistan expressed displeasure with this agreement in a note dated 16 June 1949, calling for the "equitable apportionment of all common waters," and suggesting turning jurisdiction of the case over to the World Court.
1997-04-16 IND_PAK If Indian reports are to be believed, there is a dramatic escalation in tension along the Line of Control between India-Pakistan, with Indian forces put on alert. Exchange of fire by both sides is taking place, and Pakistan forces allegedly using heavy artillery in the Kargil sector apart form attacking the border town of Kanachak and Akhnoor. The truth is unknown, but the report is giving India an excuse to undertake usual emergency measure by dispatching more troops to occupied Kashmir and senior India military officers touring border towns. India has beefed-up its border defense. This resulted in injury of five people and death of 11 Indian forces. The situation is exacerbated by a report that India is planning to divert waters of the Neelam River to Wullar Barrage. This would severely affect Pakistan's irrgation system and render the country's under-construction Kohala Power House redundant. There is no basis for stopping Pakistan's share of river waters coming from occupied Kashmir.
2002-04-22 IND_PAK Pakistan stated the Indus Basin Water Treaty with India has worked "perfectly well" and denied the accord was in any danger of being scrapped due to political and military tensions between the two countries.
2002-05-31 IND_PAK India may scrap the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan in the event of a war with the neighbouring country, India's Minister of State for Water Resources said. She said there is no immediate possibility of scrapping the Treaty but added, "I do not know what will be the stand tomorrow".
2003-06-02 IND_PAK Pakistan plans to start construction of a hydro-electric power project on river Nelum and divert its water into river Jhelum, amid reported mala fide Indian intentions to divert water in case of relations, now heading toward improvement, get worsened between the two countries. According to the Indus Water Treaty, both countries may construct dam on the river Nelum, but once it is done the other country would neither challenge the project, nor divert water for its own purpose.
2003-10-23 IND_PAK A three-member Pakistani delegation inspected the Baghliar hydro-electric project being constructed on Chinab river at Ramban. The inspection will be a step forward in improving bilateral relations; Pakistan made a request for the inspection four years ago, it was conceded now by India.
2004-06-21 IND_PAK Pakistan's Secretary of Water and Power said Pakistan is looking forward to positive results of the meetings between the two countries on Baghliar hydropower project. "We have come with a open mind and want to discuss all matters regarding this project. We understand there is open mind on Indian side too", he added.
2004-10-22 IND_PAK An inter-ministerial meeting to finalize the future strategy of Pakistan on the issue of Indian construction of the Baghliar Dam was postponed without reaching any solid conclusion. Holding this meeting was a result of India's continuous construction of the project despite repeated warnings and protests from Pakistan.
2004-12-14 IND_PAK Kashmiri leaders expressed anger toward Pakistan at the Kathmandu Conference on Kashmir; calling for the Indus Water Treaty to be scrapped due to heavy favorability toward Pakistani water interests and its ability to restrict the use of water from three major rivers, the Jhelum, Chenab and Indus.
2005-01-25 IND_PAK In response to the request for arbitration over the Baglihar project, World Bank experts expressed concern that the Indus water treaty did not assigned it proper roles of power or explicitly add enforcement mechanisms that would allow the Bank to properly address the issue. Internally, bank officials warn against taking on the position.
2005-01-28 IND_PAK The Pakistani Prime Minister said Pakistan is carrying forward the peace process with India, as it is interested in resolving all outstanding issues, including Kashmir. Regarding the Baglihar dam, he said India is violating the Indus Basin Treaty and Pakistan has decided to take up the issue with the World Bank, also signatory to the treaty.
2005-03-22 IND_PAK The Indian Commissioner of the Indus Waters, Syed Jamait Ali shah, while lamenting over Indian government designs regarding damaging the Indus Water Treaty and proceeding with the Buglihar Dam Project, has urged the Pakistan Engineering Congress (PEC) to come forward and help implement the accord in its true sense.
2005-03-30 IND_PAK The Indian Prime Minister said that he looked forward to his meeting with the Pakistani President next month. India is committed to finding a "lasting solution" to all outstanding issues with Pakistan.
2005-11-07 PAK_IND The Pakistani commissioner of the Indus Water Commission said that Pakistan will "raise objections on Krishan Ganga pro-ject's design that violates Indus Basin Treaty" and warned that if India failed to settle the Krishan Ganga project issue than Pakistan had to refer the dispute to World Bank for arbitration.


Active Organizations

indu_orgs <- org_processing("INDU")

plot_org_table(indu_orgs) %>%
  tab_header("Transboundary Organizations in the Indus River Basin, 1948-2008")
Transboundary Organizations in the Indus River Basin, 1948-2008
Date Conflict Dyad Organization Name Org Formation Agreement Name Agreement Date
1991-04-28 AFG_USR NA NA NA
1986-09-23 IND_PAK Permanent Indus Water Commission Indus Waters Treaty 1960


Acknowledgements

This project conceptually builds on several of my previous and current research projects, completed under the supervision of Professor William Clark, Professor Rosie Bsheer, Dr. Michaela Thompson, and Dr. Alicia Harley. I am also grateful for the guidance provided by David Kane and Alyssa Huberts as I learned the art of data science and developed this project.


About Me

I am a third-year undergraduate at Harvard University, pursuing a joint degree in Environmental Science & Public Policy and Near Eastern Languages & Civilizations. My research (and upcoming senior honors thesis) focuses on mechanisms for improving the governance of transboundary natural resources in conflict zones. You can reach me at wyatthurt@college.harvard.edu.

  1. For now, these descriptions are pulled from the Inventory of Shared Water Resources in Western Asia. I will write my own descriptions as the project nears its final stages and I have more to conclusively write. For now, this serves as a sample of what I hope to eventually include.↩